UKCTOCS preliminary results.

Abbreviations:

 UKCTOCS started to recruit women in 2001.

The planned 200,000 women have been recruited; in fact, 202,638.

They were divided into 3 groups:

        a group of ~ 50,000 to have annual Ca125 assays,

                with TVS if a result was +ve,

                to be known as the "multi-modal group", MMG,

        a group of ~ 50,000 to have annual trans-vaginal scanning,

                to be known as the "USS" group, USSG

        a control group of ~ 100,000.

Final results will not be due until 2014.

Preliminary results were published in Lancet Oncology 11th. March 2009.

The basic outcomes were:

    42 ovarian and tubal cancers were detected in the MMG,

            8 of which were borderline.

    45 ovarian and tubal cancers were detected in the USSG,

            20 of which were borderline.

48.3% of the ovarian cancers were at stage I or II.

13 women developed cancers in the following year that were not detected by screening.

Whether the detection of the these tumours will have an effect on mortality rates will not be known until 2014.

But the authors conclude that:

     "the prevalence screen has established that the screening strategies are feasible".

The OED says that "feasible" means: "practical, possible, manageable, convenient, serviceable".

By this definition screening was always feasible.

I think what the authors mean is that it has achieved early detection of some tumours.

And has the potential to reduce mortality.

A fantastic achievement if it turns out to be true.

There were concerns.

Mainly the false +ve rates.

These were low in the MMSG.

But there were 20 false +ve results for every diagnosed tumour in the USSG.

Apart from the terror generated, a lot of these women will have surgery with risk of morbidity and mortality.

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